Deadspin reports on a freakish occurrence in Boston, with video. Team A is up by 2 points with a player on the line for one shot. There's one second on the clock. What's the rational choice in this situation: 1) intentionally miss the free throw so that the opposing team has only one second to recover the rebound, turn, and fire off a hail mary, potentially winning the game? or 2) try to make the free throw, allowing the opposing team to set up a play, with a more manageable three-point attempt. In this actual case, the player chose 1, the opposing team got the rebound and made the hail mary, winning the game. Deadspin argues 2 was the better choice.
It's difficult to be certain in the abstract. Much of this depends on the likelihood of making a 75 foot shot, as opposed to a shot at half court or closer. But most of us who have played basketball know this: the chances of making a 3 point attempt decrease exponentially the further out you are. For many, the odds in making a half-court shot are nil, as the distance is too far for them to reach the goal. But the average high school player can hit the rim from half court with a running start. Move it back to full court and the odds must be incredibly small. Ergo, I go for 1. Bad beats don't prove that we've played the game incorrectly; bad beats occur just as do black swans. All we can do is walk away bemoaning our bad luck.
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