What, Me Worry?

I've been thinking alot about the government's data mining program.  As some have argued, it takes public information and discovers suspicious correlations.  These are then investigated, but no wiretaps are done unless there is probable cause.

This is all well and good, except if you combine two features:

    1)  There will be a lot of false positives. If the error rate for finding "suspicious correlations" is 1%,  meaning that out of 100 "hits", only 1 person is truly innocent, then 2,000,000 Americans will be picked out as suspicious.  (I am assuming that the base number for cell phone users is 200,000,000)
(tip of the hat to Zachary Ernst for reminding me of this)

    2)  As others have argued persuasively,  for example here, we are all criminals.  We break federal regulations all the time, mostly through ignorance.

Combining 1 & 2, we can come to the conclusion that the data mining program has the capabilities of being very intrusive to many people we'd argue shouldn't be the focus of government suspicion.  If I'm one of the false positives, it won't take long for an investigator to find evidence of my wrongdoing, which will provide enough evidence for a wiretap.

John Maynard Keynes and Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

(thanks to Greg Mankiw) 

For some reason this reminds me of Zorg!

Beware the Internets!

Ken at Popehat describes an interesting set of cases undergoing review right now: allegedly, a company's business model is: 1) acquire a bunch of copyrights of worthless movies, 2) wait for someone to download one of these movies illegally, 3) bring suit against that person for violating copyright, and 4) settle for some amount.  As he notes, the tables may turn as a federal judge is inquiring into whether this is a case of extortion.  Stay tuned! 

Basketball Diplomacy, Moral Equivalence, and A Comparison of Two Tourists

George Stephanopolous interviewed Dennis Rodman on his visit to North Korea.  My impression: Dennis likes the attention but hasn't thought too deeply on either the political nature of North Korea nor the support he gives to its legitimacy.  Compare this to Sophie Schmidt's recent visit and her impressions posted here.  
Sophie is the daughter of Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google.  Sophie didn't quite get the attention Dennis received from Kim Jong Un, but she is much more perceptive in her judgments.

Kudos to Stephanopolous on his good interview, deftly exposing Rodman's inanities. Some paraphrases:  On what kind of guy Kim is: "He's very humble..he loves power; he loves control."  On the political camps: "It's politics.  Bill Clinton had sex with his secretary and he stayed in power."  On the comparison between Kim and Obama: "They both love basketball."

Come to think of it, perhaps that last line might lead to some profitable parleys and if Kim's favorite NBA player growing up was Dennis Rodman, perhaps he really is only interested in defense and has no predilection for offense.   The nuclear warheads he launches towards the US will miss and land in the Atlantic. 

Amore

Sorry for the light blogging.  I'll try to do better as I head into spring break.  Meanwhile, I give you a match made in heaven. 

Meritocracy

Megan McCardle on what she sees as the New Mandarins

Done Gone Broke?

Not that three individuals of different political stripes constitute a quorum, but an interesting essay in WSJ.

Angua, RIP

Today we laid our dog, Angua, to rest.  She has been with us for 14 years. We picked her up at the pound.  Angie, as we called her, was sitting patiently in a cage; the card in front said that she was impossible to restrain and was not housebroken. She was fully-grown, so she was at least 2 years old by then.    Perhaps because of her repose, my son Adam chose her.  She was named after Corporal Angua in the Discworld series,  a werewolf. 

We had an inauspicious beginning.  On the way home, she jumped out of an open window in the car.  We scrambled to catch her.  When we got her home, she immediately ran upstairs to hide.  However, once she became comfortable with us, we learned that she was in fact housebroken and really did like staying indoors.
We soon developed a routine, one that revolved around the afternoon walk in the park.  She was insistent that we take her there everyday, walking one to two miles each time.  We missed maybe a dozen days in those fourteen years, mostly because of my infirmities.  She would have been a good postman: she liked walking in all kinds of weather, although a heavy rain tended to cut the walk shorter.

She was a princess.  When we arrived at the lake in the park, she would gently enter the water and lay down.  I never did see her swim.  Perhaps she didn't know how, but I always imagined she felt the dog paddle was beneath her.

After Adam went to college, she became my constant companion and confidante.  She'd listen to my complaints and soothe my soul.  She never broke a confidence. She is my friend.  She has made me a better person.  I'm going to miss her.  
 

Super Bowl Trivia

I was traveling yesterday and hence listening to the Super Bowl, instead of watching.  Kevin Harlan and Boomer Esiason did a good job, although Kevin did say "one large pizza with special ties" during a Papa John's spot.

Quote of the Day

"Did you know that...…that the Internet was originally designed to make sure the Department of Defense had access to the national strategic stockpile of cat pictures even in the event of a nuclear war?"  Dr. Boli's Celebrated Magazine

Division III Football!

If you've been following my blog (all 1 of you), then you know I'm a die-hard supporter of Wabash College.  In the fall, I keep up with the weekly outcome as the Little Giants play other members of the NCAC.  And I anguish over whether Wabash will make the playoffs. 

I also work at a school that is a member of the NCAA and am familiar with its workings: everything is conference-based.  To join Division I, for example, you must now be invited to do so by a conference.  This has its advantages.  On the other hand, rewarding colleges for being members of conferences has its negatives, such as this DIII conference which includes the University of Maine-Presque Isle and Mills College in Oakland as its members! (only a mere 3000 miles apart)      Why such a far-flung conference?  To increase the chances of qualifying for the post-season NCAA tournament.   (h/t Deadspin)

75K or a Hug From LeBron?

Given the choice, I'd think I'd rather have the 75K.  And as much as I like LeBron, I simple handshake would do, thank you.  (Courtesy of  Deadspin)

Electronic Medical Records, cont.

Earlier, I had written here about electronic medical records (EMR).  Megan McCardle has a second post on it, in which she details another unintended consequence:  as the pressure on doctors' time increases with EMR, doctors will resort more often to template answers.  This will worsen the accuracy of records, leading to all sorts of additional problems. 

Despite the problems, it still makes sense to changeover to EMR.  However, I'm unsure one should create public incentives to do so; if the benefits outweigh the costs, surely the market will encourage EMR.  If they don't, it won't. In other words,  let the market decide!

QOTD

Had to repost this, courtesy of Terry Teachout:

I wasted time, and now doth time waste me. Shakespeare, Richard II

Dali and Mike Wallace's Cigarette

Here's an intro you won't see today or the foreseeable future: "My name is Mike Wallace; the cigarette is Parliament."   What follows is an interview with Salvador Dali.  Enjoy! (H/T Terry Teachout)

Quote of the Day

"...to comprehend by hearsay what is beyond description is clearly impossible." Socrates in Xenophon's Memorabilia.

Medical Depression

My wife and I recently had a mildly disturbing experience with our doctor the other day.  She's a friendly MD; we both like her.  Her one flaw is she likes to push the latest and greatest drugs, when a cheaper alternative might work.  I've learned to ask upfront for the cheaper drug and avoid further hassle.  But on this last visit, she carried in a large laptop, spending more time on the laptop than engaging in conversation.  She was treating my wife, but my wife and I talked about unrelated issues to cover the lulls. 

I've figured out the culprit!  Part of the Stimulus Act in 2009 included incentives for MDs to switch to electronic medical records: payments up to 44K for doctors who treat Medicare patients, and decreased reimbursements for those who don't switch.  As proposed, the switch to EMRs would encourage information flow and reduce medical costs. 

As Megan McCardle points out, the savings haven't occurred as projected, and our experience seems consistent with others'.  Higher cost, longer visit, less interaction with the doctor.  As I head into the time of life where I anticipate the need for more medical treatment, I wonder if I'd be better off staying home. 

A Glance at Lance

I'm catching bits and pieces of Armstrong's interview, so I can't comment intelligibly on the whole interview, but one thing I've noticed: everytime Oprah asks him a tough question about his vindictive behavior, he comments in the third person: "It was a guy who....."  This is some evidence that he hasn't taken ownership of his bad behavior. 

Can the Lakers Make the Playoffs?

Many commentators, e.g. Magic Johnson, have pooh-poohed the chances of the Lakers in reaching the playoffs.  Their reasoning is thus:  the Lakers are currently 17-21.  To have made it in the playoffs in the Western Conference two years ago required 46 wins out of 82 games (last year was shortened by the strike).  So the Lakers would need to go 29-15 over the last 44 games to make the playoffs, a hard task. 

This reasoning strikes me as bad.  What's important is how far they are out of the 8th place in the Western Conference.  Currently they are only 3 games behind the 8th place team, Portland.  Hence they only need to win 4 more games than Portland over the next 44.*  That's much easier than Magic and others would have you believe!

*Note: they also have to worry about Utah and Minnesota who are between them and the Trailblazers, but the same chain of argumentation applies. 

Adjuncts at the University

Institutions of higher education are always looking for ways to save money.  One trend has been to lower the cost of instruction.  An easy way to accomplish this: lower the salary of the individual teaching the course.  Instead of paying a tenure-track professor to teach three or four courses, it's much more cost-effective to higher adjunct instructors to teach the same load.  A typical salary for an adjunct teaching one three-hour course at a public university in the south: $2000-3000.  The salary for a tenure-track professor teaching the same course: 3 to 4 times that amount.*

This approach to higher education may feel pressure from the federal government: according to Megan McCardle, a fight will be brewing on the status of adjunct faculty, especially over what constitutes full-time status. The reason: The Affordable Health Care Act, as anyone who is considered full-time must be given health benefits.  This writer knows of adjuncts who carry the same load as full-time professors but who do not get any health benefits.  This may no longer be permissible.  If so, the cost of higher education may suddenly jump, putting further pressure on tuition, student loans, etc.   Stay tuned for updates!

Curiosities

A man in Spartanburg, age 35, was arrested by  police on outstanding warrants.  When asked his name, he replied, "The Cisco Kid."    I'm curious as to his choice of moniker.  The tv series was in the 1950s.  There was a made-for-tv movie starring Jimmy Smits as the Cisco Kid, so maybe this is where he picked up the reference.  Other possibilities: 1) He's been od'ing on TV Land, 2) he's a fan of the group War, 3) he's into graphic novels.  Moonstone Books published a series of novels in 2009.  or 4) he's from San Francisco. 

Suspect Refuses to Cooperate

Caught trying to sneak a cell phone and saw into prison, this visitor was detained at the gate.  Said objects were taped to his body.  He remains silent and has asked for his phone call.  All prisoners are potential co-conspirators. 

A picture of the perp:

Caligula to Appoint Horse as Consul

In related news, Venezuela to appoint sash as president.

James Buchanan

Radley Balko has an interesting essay discussing the importance of James Buchanan on the occasion of his passing.  If anything, Buchanan's public choice theory attempts to explain the behavior of political actors and the tenacity of government programs. Is there a competitor that does a job at least as well? 

The Appropriate Lens

This is not an original thought, but perhaps the contrastive terms--Republicans/Democrats, conservative/liberal,  right/left--have lost their usefulness.  Perhaps a better distinction in politics would be to classify those who would tend to see the state as the best tool for accomplishing good ends versus those who don't.  One word used to describe the former is "statist."  For the latter, one could use "libertarian," although this carries too much baggage.  Maybe "nonstatist" would be better. 

I was thinking of this when I read this article by Nina Totenberg, in which she discusses Missouri v. McNeely.  McNeely was stopped under suspicion of drunk driving.  He refused a breathalyzer test.  The police drew a blood sample without a warrant.  The Missouri State Supreme Court argued that this was a violation of the Fourth Amendment's proscription against search/seizure without a warrant.  Missouri argues that the state can do this in these kinds of circumstances.  The Obama's administration supports Missouri, the "statist" position I would argue.

The Obama administration has supported the use of state power in many decisions where the nonstatist would draw back.  The use of drones would be another example.  Perhaps its a function of the presidency to always support the statist position.  The previous president was not known for his reluctance to use state power.   The Pyrhhonian in me worries about this, if only that the consequences of embuing the state with so much power are hard to determine and potentially mortally dangerous. 

Don't Play the Lottery!

Back when I was a young skeptic, I bussed tables at a nice restaurant.  The kitchen crew included a few patients from the local state hospital, who were undergoing treatment for drug abuse.  One was a drug dealer from Indianapolis who educated me on the various ways he'd operate to stay out of harm's way.  One conclusion he had made and shared me with this: "Fast money goes fast."  While he asserted he made up to $500-$1500 per day, he never was able to put any of that aside.

A confirmation of this maxim can be found with lottery winners.  There are numerous studies which show large winners of quick sums do not do well; go here for a description of some of them.  Yesterday's news carried another reason: fast money may kill you.   Urooj Khan cashed his check from winning a million, and then promptly died from cyanide poisoning.  Police are investigating. 

Finally, for purely rational reasons, there is no reason to play the lottery.  The expectations for winning are low, and there are better avenues for acquiring the frissons gambling provides. 

Great Minds etc.

One of my favorite bloggers, Virginia Postrel, discovered this image, an ad from 1974, while doing some research:

 Coincidence?  You decide!

Bud Logic

By now, you've probably seen the commercials,such as the above.  I'm not sure what's worse: promoting a bad beer or pushing superstition.  The tag line is "It's only weird if it doesn't work."  Guess what, Bud!  It Doesn't Work!  Ergo,  It's Weird!

Some of you might wonder if I over-react.  One of the radio commercials congratulates those fans who refuse to "hang out with the bad luck guy on game day."  I suppose it would be amusing if no one was superstitious, but given evidence to the contrary, there are a lot of bad luck guys who are hurt by their irrational friends.

Today's Comic

This captures so many things I'm interested in, courtesy of Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal.

Happy New Year!

Sorry for the thin blogging, but will be back soon!